Aston Villa travel to Newcastle on Saturday looking for their fourth straight away win, after defeating Club Brugge, Coventry and Tottenham before the international break.
St. James’ Park has been a house of horrors for Villa over the last two decades, before they finally picked up their first win in Newcastle in over 20 years back in January as Emi Buendia and Ollie Watkins scored in a 2-0 victory.
Newcastle seem more vulnerable at this moment than they have in a long time, after getting off to an underwhelming start under new manager Matthias Jaissle. They have picked up eight points from six games so far, but rank 17th in expected goals (xG) and 15th in xG conceded.
Here are the three keys for Villa to leave Newcastle with all three points on Saturday:
Control the counter-attacks
As has somewhat been the case in previous years under Eddie Howe, Jaissle’s side only really know one speed. Their xG difference (xG accumulated minus xG conceded) is 1.19 in their favour when the tempo of a game is fast, but is -2.59 at normal pace and -1.64 at slow pace.
They look to attack quickly and have had success doing so early this season. Newcastle will be hurt by the fact Anthony Elanga is out injured, but they have other weapons at their disposal.
Harvey Barnes has done plenty of damage against Villa in the past and is a real threat from the right, Joe Willock loves to break forward from midfield and Matias Fernandez-Pardo has registered the 5th-fastest speed in the Premier League this season at 22mph.
Unai Emery ideally wants to control matches, and while that can be tough on the road and especially in a stadium like St. James’, it is critical Villa are able to dictate the pace and not leave themselves open to quick breakaways.
Newcastle currently rank 18th in successful crosses per game. They lack a natural target man up front, with Yoanne Wissa leading the line, so Villa sitting back in a more compact shape and daring their opponents to break them down is a perfectly fine strategy.
Watch the full-backs
On that theme, full-backs are an important part of how Newcastle attack, with Lewis Hall in particular a real threat flying forward from the left side.
Newcastle have caught teams out with long balls to full-backs pushing forward and giving the opposing full-back a decision to make on whether to mark them or the nearby winger, and Hall has also shown an ability to slip behind the opposition defence unnoticed in the final third.
This is where team selection could be key for Emery, as Matty Cash and Aaron Wan-Bissaka are likely to need support out wide. John McGinn on the right and Emi Buendia -- who scored in this fixture last season -- on the left are the logical choices due to their work rate and understanding of Emery’s demands.
Put pressure on the defence
While Jaissle’s Newcastle may look similar to Howe’s team in terms of how they attack, they look frail defensively and are not making life hard for opponents as much as they used to.
They have just one clean sheet so far, and rank dead last in interceptions per game in the Premier League, 17th in tackles and 18th in number of times they have won possession in the final third.
Newcastle have been poor at defending the penalty area, leaving players in big pockets of space in areas where they can drive towards goal. They are not tackling well at all once put in compromised situations and struggle to clear their lines.
They are also not especially quick, with none of their centre-backs ranking in the top 41 players at their position in top speed, and none of their full-backs in the top 24.
Villa had some joy against Fenerbahce by stealing the ball as their opponents tried to build up, and Newcastle are susceptible to this as well, having given the ball away multiple times near their own penalty area in the lead up to goals.
This point is less about a strategy and more to say that as long as Villa are sound defensively in this game, they stand a great chance of winning as they will create opportunities at the other end and Newcastle may present them with some as well.
This could be another game for Johan Manzambi to shine if he is given space to operate in the final third. Nicolas Jackson will be licking his lips given his recent performances and how clumsily Newcastle’s centre-backs Sven Botman and Malick Thiaw have defended at times.
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