It is likely a foregone conclusion Steve Bruce is out as Aston Villa manager should the club fail in its promotion efforts. However, it remains clearly evident that Steve Bruce is not the man to lead a promoted Premier League club, either.
In a perfect world, Aston Villa, two years removed from England’s top flight, win the EFL Championship in a glorious return to the Premier League. That dream is over as Wolverhampton Wanderers are running away in the second-division. Villa remain 17 points off the top with the closest clubs jointly eight points away.
Fine. What about the other automatic promotion spot, second-place? Still definitely possible, but Villa are trending in the wrong direction – currently nine points off of Bristol City and Cardiff City. Now, in a 2-1 away defeat to Brentford, Villa sit three points off the playoff zone, the Championship’s 3rd through 6th spots. With 22 league matches from now until May, a nearly unlimited amount of permutations remain in play. Aston Villa could finish second, or Aston Villa could finish well in the bottom-half.
1. Dr. Tony Xia should probably give Bruce the rest of the season.
The #BruceOut movement is gaining steam, and rightfully so. Despite having, save Wolves, the deepest, most expensive and talented squad, Bruce is mired in mediocrity and questionable tactics.
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Bruce enters his third transfer window with Aston Villa.
His recruitment, though strong in reputation and numbers, seems to lack any coherent vision. Take last January for example. James Bree joined from Barnsley for ~£3 million and was ushered into a few starts at both right wingback and right back. This season? Close to nothing, despite Alan Hutton and Ahmed Elmohamady (nominally a winger) featuring in the position. Remember Birkir Bjarnason from FC Basel? Neither do I; Bruce refuses to use him despite midfield injuries and scoring woes.
Scott Hogan, the £10 million forward? Until Tuesday at Brentford, he likewise rarely featured for Villa, instead playing second or third fiddle to Jonathan Kodjia and Keinan Davis. Even when playing, Hogan is a constant injury worry given his history.
Henri Lansbury? Played a lot in the latter half of the 2016/2017 season, but little since, in part due to muscle injuries. When fit, Lansbury has been second-choice to Glenn Whelan in defensive midfield, second-choice to Conor Hourihane as a number eight, and third-choice in attacking midfield to Jack Grealish and Josh Onomah. Reminder he signed a five-year contract from Nottingham Forest last January. Now, per reports, Steve Bruce is considering a transfer of Lansbury to raise funds:
Steve Bruce could be willing to listen to offers for midfielder Henri Lansbury to raise funds. [mirror] #avfc
— villareport (@villareport) December 26, 2017
Chris Samba was unemployed until he began training with Aston Villa in the spring of 2017. In the summer, he was offered a one-year deal to play as the third-choice central defender behind John Terry and James Chester. He’s been pretty good thus far in limited action, but in return, Steve Bruce and executives went and sold the club’s only left-footed defender, Nathan Baker to Bristol City.
A numbers crunch in defense forced Bruce to utilize Mile Jedinak at center back as well as fifth-choice, Tommy Elphick – who Bruce tried to sell, but was unable to do so.
A popular rumor on the street is Steve Bruce is on a rolling, one-year contract. Therefore, it would cost the club little to replace the the 56-year old in future commitments. This may or may not be true, but it is hard to envision any manager coming to Aston Villa and becoming immediately integrated into a squad that competes for three points every match from now until May.
Giving Bruce the rest of the year allows Villa executives to observe a broader range of data points. Is promotion still in the cards, or is this the lowest-of-lows during the Bruce reign?
A premature firing could spell disaster on the transfer front as well. John Terry arrived because of Steve Bruce. Sam Johnstone, Robert Snodgrass and Josh Onomah were brought on-loan through his recruitment.
The latter two reportedly having recall clauses in their loan contracts. Be careful what you wish for in a Steve Bruce sacking, which brings me to my second point.
2. Steve Bruce is not the man for a Premier League club.
Should Aston Villa finish in the top-six and should Aston Villa advance through two rounds of playoffs, Steve Bruce should be celebrated as a hero.
He should also be let go in the summer.
Steve Bruce can blame injuries all he wants, the fact of the matter remains. He has not gotten 100% out of his luxurious (for the EFL Championship) squad. Aston Villa are punching so far below their weight it is cringe-worthy on match day. Yeah, losing Jonathan Kodjia sucks, but you have two other £10 million forwards. One you publicly humiliated and sent to Australia on loan. The other you rarely play.
Bruce’s managerial career includes four previous promotions to the Premier League. Twice with Birmingham City in 2007 and 2002 and twice with Hull City in 2013 and 2016. He’s vastly experienced in the second division, but the Premier League is a different animal. Bruce’s career win percentage is actually the highest at Aston Villa than at any other extended stay in his managerial career.
That is…worrying.
Next: PLAYER GRADES: Villa 1-2 Brentford
It seems counterintuitive, but Steve Bruce should not be with Aston Villa past this season, regardless of the outcome.