Aston Villa have made the signing of Nicolas Jackson from Chelsea official, as the Senegal international arrives to replace the outgoing Ollie Watkins, who is on his way to Saudi Arabia.
Watkins led Villa’s front line for six seasons and scored 91 Premier League goals in that time, so Jackson will have big shoes to fill.
He will be helped by a familiarity with manager Unai Emery from their time together at Villarreal, as well as his two years of Premier League experience at Chelsea in which he scored 24 goals.
The good news for Villa fans is that according to the data, Jackson not only matches Watkins, but betters him in most areas.
For a fair comparison between Jackson and Watkins, the charts above are exclusively from their time in the Premier League, with the 2022/23 season the start date for Watkins since that is the season Emery arrived.
The biggest point in Watkins’ favour is the statistic right at the top, which is the most important for any striker: goals.
He has averaged more goals per 90 minutes than Jackson, a better post-shot xG on target, which helps measure the quality of shots, and had an average xG overperformance of 0.02, compared to an underperformance of 0.10 for Jackson.
At the same time, Jackson has put himself in better positions to score, indicated by his higher xG. He gets so many chances that it offsets the ones he misses to a degree, and it is worth noting he is still above average for goals, despite not being as prolific as Watkins.
Interestingly, when taking Jackson’s seasons at Villarreal and Bayern Munich into account, he has actually produced an average xG overperformance of 0.023 and has ranked in the 78th percentile for post-shot xG across the last four years seasons, both slightly better marks than Watkins.
From watching the two, Jackson also shows the ability to finish in creative ways more so than Watkins, using outside the boot finishes or finding ways to get a shot off even when he has to contort his body in an awkward way. It looks scruffy at times, but it is effective.
In terms of the other aspects of the position, it is hard to find an area in which Jackson does not outperform Watkins.
Watkins may have averaged more assists, but none of the underlying data actually backs up that he is a more creative player, as he ranked worse than Jackson in every other passing metric, including expected assists and chances created.
Between how he links play in the final third and his threat as a ball carrier, Jackson is significantly better than Watkins in possession and a real threat on counter attacks, which are a big part of Villa’s attack under Emery.
Jackson’s ability to hold the ball, wriggle and then sprint away from defenders, as well as pull off creative passes and clever flicks to teammates, is on another level to what Watkins was capable of.
In addition, his top speed of 34.23 kmph in the Bundesliga last season easily beats Watkins’ 32.6 kmph in the Premier League.
Fast breaks often came to a screeching halt if the ball was passed to Watkins too soon. The same problems should not exist with Jackson. Watkins was safer and dispossessed far less regularly, but Jackson’s pros far outweigh the cons.
The 25-year-old is more of a factor out of possession as well, winning the ball back in the final third 0.82 times per 90 minutes compared to just 0.45 for Watkins. He can be a real nuisance to defenders with his eagerness to close them down.
Watkins does edge it in terms of aerial duels, and perhaps the biggest part of Jackson’s game that needs cleaning up – besides perhaps his finishing – is his discipline.
He has four red cards in club football since 2022, which is far too many for a striker, as well as 24 yellows. Watkins has zero red cards and 15 yellows in the same period.
Jackson still needs some refinement, but the natural tools he is working with are superior to any striker Villa have had in a long time. Reunited with Emery once more, Jackson could be a big hit at Villa Park.
Add us as a preferred source on Google