Aston Villa’s clash with Brentford at Villa Park looking for their first point at home this season, and while on paper it looks a tough test against an unbeaten team.
The Bees have not been as strong on their travels though, drawing both away games so far against Leeds and Bournemouth.
The difference in their xG for and against in their away games has been -0.15 on average compared to 0.4 in their favour at home, and that continues a trend from last season when they averaged an xG difference of -0.03 at the Gtech Community Stadium and -0.48 on the road.
Here are three tactical decisions Unai Emery has to get right for Villa to take all three points to kick off a hectic October fixture list:
Back four selection
Unai Emery has options at every position in the back four except for left-back, with Matteo Ruggeri the only fit option. Against Brentford, he should go with a specific combination of Aaron Wan-Bissaka at right-back, Taylor Harwood-Bellis and Tyrone Mings at centre-back alongside Ruggeri.
The reason for this is two-fold. Firstly, the physical presence of Harwood-Bellis and Mings will be key to deal with an aerial bombardment which is sure to come.
Brentford are 2nd in the Premier League for the number of accurate crosses per match (6.6) and their cross accuracy of 34.4% is best in the league, well clear of the next best mark (28.6%).
They have also created more xG from set pieces than anyone else (3.8, the next best is 3.2), and scored 3 goals from set pieces. Only Brighton and Chelsea have more. Mings specifically should help defend Villa’s box better than Torres.
The other danger with Brentford is fast breaks, as they look to hit teams quickly over the top or with a couple of line-breaking passes to manufacture a counter-attack. Kevin Schade is the biggest threat, having posted the 18th-highest top speed in the Premier League last season.
He will likely start on the left, so going with Wan-Bissaka over Cash – who played nearly 300 minutes with Poland and got a dead leg – makes sense not only because he he is a better defender, but because he was the league’s 14th-fastest full-back last season, with Cash down in 52nd.
At centre-back, Mings had the 18th-best top speed last season compared to Torres who was 41st. Having extra pace there should help the left side, where Ruggeri is not as quick as Maatsen.
The top speed for Harwood-Bellis is not publicly known, but it is surely better than Lindelof’s 72nd place ranking last season.
Looking at this matchup purely from the point of view of limiting Brentford’s main attacking avenues, this looks like the best defensive combination.
Bypass the press
Leaving Torres on the bench will hurt Villa’s ability to build from the back, but in this game, that should not be the plan anyway. Brentford are a very aggressive and physical team, ranking 4th in the league for possession won in the final third, 3rd in distance covered and 2nd in fouls committed.
They have scored multiple goals already after pressing and winning the ball high up the pitch, and as a result Villa should look to bypass the press entirely and go more direct.
Brentford are also great at defending their own penalty area, ranking 3rd in clearances, so hitting them quickly rather than letting them get into a settled defensive shape.
If Emery does want to go and try to attack quickly, starting Ibrahim Mbaye on the right, moving John McGinn to the number 10 position and Johan Manzambi out to the left might be a smart move.
Having McGinn close to Jackson could help Villa hold the ball up, while Mbaye and Manzambi could threaten wide with their ball-carrying ability. Having those two on the wings could also help open up a stubborn block by winning a one-on-one if Brentford fall back behind the ball.
The question is whether Emery is comfortable dropping Buendia, who has covered more distance than any Villa player per 90 minutes this season. However, sometimes his diminutive stature means he can get swallowed up in more physical contests anyway,
An extra note: this game should suit Joao Gomes if it is going to be a scrappy affair. His ability to win tackles, hold onto the ball under pressure and dribble past opponents should come in handy.
Defensive cat and mouse
The final question is how Villa want to attack Brentford (or not) when the visitors have the ball.
They are not a free-flowing, possession-based team, ranking 17th in pass accuracy so far this season. Are Villa brave enough to try to suffocate them into making a mistake, even if that means playing a higher defensive line and inviting more long balls over the top?
If he does go with a pacier back four, Emery may have the stomach for it. Alternatively, they could sit in a lower block initially, cutting off the threat in behind, then jump onto Brentford’s midfielders and try to force a mistake there.
It will be interesting to see how Emery wants to approach this game after failing to pick up a point or even score a goal against Keith Andrews’ side last term. There will be a risk and a potential reward to either philosophy he takes out of possession.
Add us as a preferred source on Google