Aston Villa have made a slow start to the season, picking up just four points from the opening five Premier League games, although they did secure their first league victory over Spurs.
But beyond the wins and losses, what do the underlying numbers in terms of expected goals (xG) say about Villa’s performance so far?
For those unaware, xG is a way to measure the quality of chances a team has created or conceded, based on the exact spot on the pitch where a shot was taken from and using historical data to determine how likely a player is to score from there.
According to Understat, Villa have created 4.99 xG across five games, scoring four goals, and have conceded 10.86 expected goals against (xGA), conceding nine, meaning they are 20th in expected points with just 3.97. They do have four points but are 15th.
All that makes for pretty grim reading, but there is plenty of context to apply, the first and most important of which is that their 4-0 defeat to Brighton on the opening day is doing a lot of work within those numbers.
That game was basically fake from Villa’s point of view. They entered it with no striker due to Ollie Watkins refusing to play, and they were clearly not ready to start the season with so many players’ futures up in the air. Joao Gomes was also sent off in the first half.
Villa conceded 4.01 xGA in that game and created only 0.29 xG. If you remove the first game of the season from every Premier League team, Villa ranks 17th in xG instead of 19th and 14th in xGA instead of dead last. Those are still not great rankings, but nowhere near as bad as at first glance.
Unai Emery’s side have Improved as they have gone on, although that is partly due to easier fixtures after facing Brighton and Arsenal in the first two matches.
They accumulated only 0.28 xG in each of the first two games, followed by 1.64, 1.09 and 1.71 in the next three versus Hull City, Nottingham Forest and Spurs. Across the last three games they rank 11th in the league in xG.
There has been an improvement in defense too, although there is still work to do. Villa averaged an xGA of 2.76 in the first two fixtures and only 1.77 since then, ranking 13th in the last three games.
It has been a rocky start, but it is important to remember Villa were also slow out of the gate last season and still ended up finishing 4th and winning the Europa League. That team did not have the excuse of bedding in a host of new players, either.
So how do their early-season numbers compare to last year?
In the first five games of the 2025/26 campaign – when the international break came after the fourth game, giving Villa an earlier opportunity to regroup than this time around – they only racked up 3.79 xG, which was 19th in the league, and conceded 7.96 xGA, ranking 17th.
Essentially, Villa look more of an attacking threat than at this time last year. They have been worse in defense but again, the Brighton game really hurts the overall numbers.
What happened after the first five games of last year? Villa improved in both attack and defense, and although they still only ranked 11th in xG across the final 33 matches, they had the 5th-lowest xGA tally.
Perhaps tightening up the defense is the key to success once more for Villa, as they have enough attacking talent up front to score enough goals throughout the year. That was on show in the Spurs game as Johan Manzambi, Nicolas Jackson and Emi Buendia all found the net.
Villa’s success was accused of being unsustainable at times last year due to the sheer volume of goals they scored from outside the box, but they were at it again versus Tottenham as Buendia smashed a shot into the top corner, and maybe it is not so unsustainable after all.
A team outscoring their xG does not necessarily mean they are lucky. It can also be a comment on the quality of finishers in the team, and in Villa’s case, it is partially a function of how they play.
Their goals may be flying in from distance, but Villa have often been able to create these openings in a way where there is no defender anywhere near the shooter, and in that situation, most Premier League attackers are going to be capable of getting a quality shot away.
Buendia had acres of space to set up and strike his decisive goal against Spurs, and if teams are going to give up that kind of space on the edge of their penalty area, Villa have shown they are willing and capable of punishing opponents in those situations.
In terms of Villa’s performances beyond the results, the signs are getting more encouraging that they are heading in the right direction, and in recent weeks the underlying statistics echo that increased level of optimism.
If Villa were able to start so poorly both in terms of xG and actual results a year ago and still go on to have their best season in the last 30 years, there is no reason this side cannot make similar improvements, and they are already heading in a more promising direction.
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