Aston Villa’s 1-1 draw at home to Fulham on Saturday night felt like a missed opportunity after building momentum in previous weeks with back-to-back Premier League wins over Newcastle United and Manchester City.
The stalemate leaves Villa with one win from their first five league games at Villa Park. Sparkling home form had been the bedrock of their success in recent years, and it seemed the win over Man City last weekend may be the spark they needed, but the draw with Fulham was a step backwards.
More than just the results, some of the underlying numbers are alarming when it comes to Villa’s performances in front of their own fans early in the season.
After five home games, Villa have conceded 10.65 non-penalty expected goals (NPxG), which averages out to 2.13 expected goals (xG) conceded per game. Only Crystal Palace (2.42) have a worse average early in the season.
That is a far cry from last year, when Villa allowed only 23.27 NPxG at home across 19 league games, averaging 1.22 per match. That ranked 9th best in the Premier League.
It is important to note Villa have played Arsenal and Man City – arguably the two best teams in the country – among their five home games this season, and the Arsenal fixture came when Villa’s squad was still very much in flux with the transfer window drawing to a close.
But their worst games of the season in terms of xG conceded were not against those two title contenders. Besides the opening day drubbing away at Brighton, Villa’s two worst defensive showings were at home to Nottingham Forest (2.79 NPxG conceded) and Fulham (2.77).
Those two teams are not exactly powerhouses, with Forest’s 2-1 win at Villa Park their only victory of the season, and Fulham only managing wins against newly promoted Hull City and Coventry City so far.
It was easier to excuse the Forest loss as Villa were still finding their feet early in the season, and ended the match with ten men when Ian Maatsen was injured after Unai Emery had already made all of his substitutions.
The Fulham game felt like more of a genuine red flag. Villa were 1-0 up at half-time against a team they expected to beat and completely lost control in the second half.
The goal they conceded was a freak moment as Zion Suzuki dropped Alex Iwobi’s corner over the goal line, but the equaliser had long been coming, and in the end Villa were perhaps fortunate to come away with a point.
Villa’s lack of ability to control games at home, and their defensive vulnerability is a real concern, and something Emery has to get fixed if they are going to re the kind of home form that was so crucial to their strong seasons in previous years.
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