Following Thursday’s draw, Aston Villa’s Champions League fixtures for the league phase have now been confirmed, and they can start charting their path to the knockout stages.
Villa begin their campaign with a trip to Brugge on 8th September, before back-to-back home games against Fenerbahce and Viking in October.
The blockbuster clash with Barcelona at the Camp Nou comes in November, followed by another away trip to face Galatasaray. Villa host PSG in December, before finishing up the league phase in January against Borussia Dortmund at Villa Park and Slavia Praha away from home.
In their last Champions League campaign two years ago, Villa were not only able to qualify from the league phase, but finished in the top eight, meaning they skipped the playoff round and advanced straight to the round of 16.
They needed 16 points to do so, and the same number was required for a place in the top eight last season. Can Villa do it again?
Villa beat both their pot one opponents two years ago, Bayern Munich at home and RB Leipzig away. The latter was a particularly favourable draw, especially compared to Barcelona this time around. It will be a lot more difficult to take points against pot one teams this season.
That means Villa will need to be more clinical in their other games. In order to get 16 points they probably need to beat both pot four teams (Viking and Slavia Praha), as well as Fenerbahce at home and Club Brugge away.
That would get them to 12 points, meaning they would only need another four from the remaining four games against Barca, PSG, Dortmund and Galatasaray. That is easier said than done, but Villa will back themselves to get at least a win and a draw from that slate.
The Football Rankings account on X offers some encouragement that Villa could take advantage of a relatively comfortable schedule.
Based on their projections, Viking have a 73% chance to be eliminated in the league phase by finishing in the bottom eight, while four more of Villa's opponents are viewed as coin flips to finish in the top 24 and qualify for the knockout rounds.
Slavia Praha have only been given a 32% chance to make the knockouts. Galatasaray are at 53%, Brugge 54% and Fenerbahce 61%. If they are going to finish in the top eight, Villa need to make the most of the five games against more beatable opposition.
In terms of the logistics, there are not too many Premier League games sandwiched around Villa’s Champions League exploits which look especially difficult.
They do face Manchester City after the game against Viking, but both are at home, and Viking are expected to be Villa’s weakest Champions League opponent.
The toughest sequence has to be following up their trip to Barcelona with an away game against Manchester United, and they face United again at Villa Park just days before they host Dortmund.
Overall, Villa will have to be clinical against the teams they are expected to beat if they want to finish in the top eight to give themselves some margin for error against the likes of Barca, PSG and Dortmund.
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