Aston Villa vs. Wolves: What went wrong?

Aston Villa squandered a late two-goal lead in a 3-2 loss to Wolves at home on Saturday afternoon in the most disappointing result the club has endured since earning promotion back to the Premier League.

Scoreless at the half, Danny Ings broke the deadlock in the 48th minute when he headed home a right-sided cross from John McGinn. McGinn went on to double Villa’s lead 20 minutes later as the home side’s dominance grew.

Villa, seemingly in firm control, were caught napping in the 80th minute when Romain Saissbrought one back for Wolves. The goal shifted the match’s momentum and made way for Connor Coady to tie the game five minutes later when he took advantage of an almost laughable defensive display from Villa’s back three.

The collapse came full circle in the 95th minute when Villa conceded a free kick outside of the box, which Ruben Neves promptly scored off of with help from Matt Targett’s backside.

Shambolic late-game management

The first half was even, but Villa were the better side after halftime and firmly took control of the match. They deserved to be 2-0 ahead after 75 minutes and seemed to be cruising towards three points.

Dean Smith made three substitutions in the match, and all three occurred before Wolves’ first goal. On paper, the changes made sense: Marvelous Nakamba for Douglas Luiz, Jacob Ramsey for Emi Buendia, and Ashley Young for Matty Cash. Smith admitted after the match that Buendia asked to come off, and Cash picked up a knock.

Ultimately, all three subs were anonymous and well off the mark in terms of performance. But what did Villa in was what had gotten them in trouble during the 2019-20 campaign: they stayed back and invited pressure with a lead.

After the Saiss goal, Smith’s men were more passive and played deeper. The midfield and defensive line failed to absorb the pressure and looked sloppy and out of place as Wolves’ influence grew.

The second Wolves goal was a shambolic display of defending on Villa’s part. The winner was unlucky, but poor defending further up the pitch led to a foul in a dangerous area. At that point, Villa were reeling, losing battles in every area, and Wolves were there to take advantage.

High pressure and a winning mentality both lacking

Villa have been most successful this season when they deploy a high press, wreaking havoc in the final third. But on Saturday, Villa attempted a season-low 86 pressures and were successful only 25 times, also a season-worst.

You can point to Smith’s decision to play Buendia in the midfield three in place of Ramsey, but Ramsey was on the pitch for all three of Wolves’ goals. Yes, Buendia played a factor in Villa registering a season-low total in pressures, but it wasn’t why they lost the match.

This comes back to Villa’s insistence on sitting back with a lead and the lack of a killer instinct. We thought last season Smith had learned his lesson to not sit back when ahead, but here we are yet again.

Inconsistency has reared its ugly head once more, and if Villa truly believe they can challenge for European places they have to foster a ruthless, winning culture. That starts at the top, with Smith. We back the gaffer 100%, but the squad lacks a winning mentality.

Was the 3-5-2 formation necessary?

Many supporters questioned Smith’s decision to stick with the now oft-used 3-5-2 formation. Would a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 have helped Villa better pressure a notoriously defensive Wolves side?

The Athletic’s Gregg Evans pointed out that Villa essentially played with four in the back and shared an average-position map on Twitter in which Cash is seen in essentially a right-wing position. See the graphic below.

Functionally Villa played with four at the back, but if that were the plan from the start, why didn’t Anwar El Ghazi play as a winger in a proper front three? Cash played well, but last season so much of Villa’s offense was driven by the wingers.

The side’s lost its potency in the final third, and that’s probably because Smith has moved away from the 4-3-3. A switch back could help increase pressure higher up the field and generate more chance-creating opportunities.