Aston Villa FC play-off chances dip into single digits

Aston Villa’s abhorrent form in 2019 has seen the club dip well out of the play-off picture with 13 matches remaining. With models projecting a < 10% chance of making it, what’s required to see the claret and blues through?

Aston Villa’s no-show performance on Saturday against local rivals West Bromwich Albion was the final ‘nail in the coffin’ for many on the Twittersphere. While not mathematically eliminated, most projection models emulate this hopeless feeling.

FiveThirtyEight’s Soccer Power Index reveals a 5% chance of claiming a spot 3rd through 6th, with a 2% shot at promotion. Similarly, Experimental361 shows a 3% chance of climbing into the play-off realm.

The situation obviously sucks, but there is consolation in knowing that Villa at least control their own destiny (sort of):

Problem is, however, along that line of thinking: the schedule is quite difficult.

Starting next weekend at Stoke, Villa begin an odyssey in March and April that sees matches against 7 opponents ahead of them in the table (out of 13!). With Jack Grealish hopefully returning to the matchday squad, perhaps the team can go on a little bit of a run. If they do, they’ll need results in matchdays 45 and 46 against…..Leeds and Norwich.

What kind of run are we looking at? Probably one that requires a minimum of ten wins and a draw or two from here on out. Again, not impossible, but highly, highly unlikely. For the eternal optimists, it’s basically the form Villa showed under Dean Smith with a healthy squad, Grealish and Axel Tuanzebe included.

So while the claret and blues continue to challenge for a spot until mathematically eliminated, it’s paramount the club rebuilds some goodwill through positive performances. Lately, it’s been downright awful as Smith juggles managing injuries, a suspension, and frankly, players he doesn’t rate.