Aston Villa Points Predictor: November 2018

October was a month of ups and downs for Villa. 4 points out of a possible 15 points saw the previous predictor fall short. Villa are now sitting in 17th place albeit a mere 7 points out of 6th place. Steve Bruce was sacked after the away loss to Millwall, and the Dean Smith era started with a win followed by two losses.

Is November the time to shine? Find out on this month’s Aston Villa Points Predictor.

Aston Villa vs Bolton

The regression monster has reared its ugly head for Bolton who are 0-3-7 in their last 10, after starting the season on 10 points following a 3-1-1 start. Aston Villa have certainly not been in the best of form either, although the team has looked markedly better under the tenure of Dean Smith. For what it’s worth, the team is undefeated at home since he’s taken over, and I’m not sure that there is any reason to believe that this will be anything worse than a draw. That said, the regression monster should’ve already checked itself out of Villa Park, and the team is trending upward. 2-0 Villa.

November points: 3

Total Points on the season: 21

Derby County vs Aston Villa

Frank Lampard’s men are playing VERY well. The team has experienced a win AWAY against West Brom, as well as quality draws away to Middlesbrough and an in-form QPR. They’ve even sprinkled in a win against league leaders Sheffield United. This is one of those matches between two teams that are once again vying for a top 6 finish. Derby are looking the part, while Villa are frantically attempting to claw back into the discussion. I see this being a physical, scrappy game that sees the first team to score win the match. However, I’m not sure if either team will score a goal. At this juncture a 0-0 draw would be more than acceptable. However, I see this one going to Derby 1-0.

November points: 3

Total Points on the season: 21

Aston Villa vs Birmingham City

DERBY DAY. This should undoubtedly be the most raucous day Villa Park has seen this season. I would hope that there is an even greater special onus on this game given that is the first second city derby under the new leadership. As in most major rivalries such as this, the “home” team should almost always have the edge. I dont see that it should be any different here. This is going to be a fired up 2-1 victory.

November points: 6

Total Points on the season: 24

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest

Forest has been sneaky good this year. Nottingham has also been very good on the road, having lost only one match away from home. Last year’s Villa loanee Lewis Grabban rests near the top of the league in scoring. He’ll be looking to slot at least one home in front of his former supporters, and hopefully Nyland is able to keep him at bay. Unfortunately, I see Grabban getting at least one past the Villa defense in this one. Coincidentally enough, Forest’s only loss away was to Brentford, Smith’s former club. Lots of statistics to consider here. Unfortunately, strange statistics alone don’t win games. This is an “oops” game for Villa. 2-1 Forest.

November points: 6

Total Points on the season: 24

6 out of 12 is okay, although it’s less than what the team will need to advance up the table. The ceiling for this stretch of games is probably 10 points, and that is realistically the kind of form the club will need to start leap-frogging teams in the Championship. Let’s hope my predictions are all wrong. #UTV

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