Last night’s game against Sheffield United sees Aston Villa enter Christmas with half of the Championship season behind them. We sit in 6th place on 38 points. It’s time to take a look at what we could realistically hope for this season. In short – the playoffs should be the bare minimum fans can expect.
We can get a broad understanding of how the rest of this season might play out for Villa by looking at how teams in similar circumstances have fared in previous Championship seasons. Looking at points totals and league positions isn’t the most sophisticated analysis – but it still highlights some interesting patterns that are helpful in shaping expectations for the second half of the campaign.
Is automatic promotion possible?
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It’s really unlikely. In the last five seasons, seven of the ten teams occupying the top two positions at the halfway stage have ended up finishing in the top two. Only once has the team occupying first place at the halfway stage failed to achieve automatic promotion – meaning Wolves will more than likely be playing in the Premier League next season.
Interestingly, only once in those five seasons has the team in third at the halfway stage achieved automatic promotion. Burnley lost only two games in the whole second half of the 2013/14 season to leapfrog Derby into second but both were some way short of the champions, Leicester.
Last night’s result means Villa do have some hope. Twice in the last five seasons have teams in fifth or sixth made late surges into the automatic promotion spots. In the 2015/16 season, Burnley went unbeaten in the second half of the season to storm from fifth at the halfway stage, to win the Championship by four points ahead of Middlesbrough. In the 2014/15 season, Watford won 16 of 23 games to rise from sixth to second and push Bournemouth to a single point to win the title.
Both of those teams started in similar predicaments to the one Villa are in now. Both were on 38 points. Their upturns in form are pretty remarkable, however, and both achieved an average of over 2.2 points per game in the second half of the season.
Such a run of form feels pretty far away for Villa at the moment. Our current longest unbeaten run was eight games (including four wins) between the back end of August and the end of September, and ending in our 2-0 humbling away to Wolves. It’s possible, so we can be hopeful Villa improve to that extent. After recent form, I wouldn’t be too optimistic though.
No team outside of the playoff places at the halfway stage has achieved automatic promotion in the last five seasons.
What about the Playoffs?
Like the teams in the automatic promotion spots, the rest of the Top Six tends to be remarkably consistent in the second half of the campaign. In the last five seasons, of the 30 teams that have occupied the Top Six places after 23 games, 25 of them have finished the season in the Top Six. Last nights’ result, though disappointing, means Villa are well placed to stay in contention for promotion come the end of the season.
Only once in those five seasons has a team outside of the Playoff places at the halfway stage gone on to achieve promotion. That was Norwich in the 2014/15 season when Alex Neil arrived in January and inspired them to 14 wins from 23 games to see them rise from seventh to third and victory in the playoff final. It takes a dramatic upturn in form to achieve this – reminiscent of Fulham’s late surge last year.
What does this mean for Steve Bruce?
Steve Bruce will know exactly how consistent the Top Six tends to be – having achieved promotion with Hull twice in the last five seasons, and on both occasions have been in the Top Six places at the halfway stage of the season. This should give Villa fans some hope for the remainder of the season.
Villa’s form and league position at this stage means achieving a playoff place is eminently realistic this season. We should judge Steve Bruce accordingly. If he masterminds a surge up the table like Burnley or Watford to achieve automatic promotion, he absolutely deserves patience next season in the Premier League. Failure to finish in the Top Six from our current position should see the end of Bruce’s tenure at Villa.
If we stay on course but fail to achieve promotion – it’s a gamble as to whether or not we should stick with him. In the last five seasons, Leicester, Middlesbrough and Brighton have all built on failure in the playoffs to achieve automatic promotion the following year – and did it with the same manager in charge. Bruce would undoubtedly point to that as reason to keep his job and be allowed to build for next year, but whether the fans or the club hierarchy would buy it again, is another matter.